Sentiment remains gloomy despite a technical bounce. While U.S. stock indices continue to push higher, Bitcoin (BTC) is clearly lagging behind. Many investors are asking the question: has the bull run already ended? According to a fresh report from Coinbase Institutional, it is too early to panic — at least in the medium term. In their view, December could become an inflection point, but the strategy needs to be handled carefully.
Why Bitcoin is dropping
Paradoxically, the U.S. economy is growing, but Bitcoin is not benefiting from it. Coinbase explains this through a so-called “K-shaped recovery”. Large corporations are boosting profits thanks to artificial intelligence technologies, which supports equity markets. At the same time, AI creates employment risks for the middle class.
The result is obvious: retail investors have less disposable capital for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies, while institutional players are behaving more cautiously. As a result, Bitcoin has decoupled from equity market dynamics and is currently trading more than three standard deviations below its 90-day moving average. The last time such extremes were recorded was after the Terra Luna collapse and the FTX bankruptcy.
Rally in December? The bull case
Despite the negative backdrop, Coinbase analysts remain constructive. David Duong and Colin Basco argue that conditions are lining up for a potential trend reversal as early as December.
The key reasons are:
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Fed decision. On December 10, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold its rate meeting. Markets are currently pricing in a high probability of a rate cut, which could free up liquidity and trigger fresh capital inflows.
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Bitcoin’s underperformance vs the S&P 500. Historically, periods of extreme Bitcoin undervaluation relative to the stock market have often been followed by sharp upside reversals.
Risk factors: ETF outflows and shrinking stablecoin supply
Before betting on a rebound, it is important to understand the risks. BTC has lost several key support zones, including the 98,000–100,000 US dollar range.
Two metrics are particularly worrying:
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Outflows from BTC spot ETFs. In November, U.S. spot Bitcoin funds saw record redemptions. For now, they act more as a drag on price than as a stabilizing buffer.
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Declining stablecoin supply. In particular, USDT — the main “fuel” for crypto purchases. Stablecoin supply growth has slowed to its weakest pace since 2023.
CryptoQuant confirms that the downturn in the stablecoin market makes any potential recovery more fragile.
Why “buying the dip” is dangerous right now
Coinbase warns that a blind “buy the dip” strategy is risky in the current environment. With multiple support levels already broken, natural demand struggles to recover.
Instead of classic DCA, the analysts suggest a more flexible, trend-based approach: adding to positions only when BTC is trading back above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Backtests show that this strategy can increase returns almost fivefold compared with constant buying into weakness.
Bottoming out: close, but patience is key
The market is actively searching for a point of stability. The probability of a cyclical bottom forming in December is high — supported by the macro backdrop and strong oversold conditions in BTC. However, before betting on a full reversal, investors should wait for confirmation signals — for example, a sustained move back above 98,000 US dollars on strong volume.
Where to buy safely while the market is searching for a bottom?
With the market still highly sensitive to risk, choosing a reliable exchange is critical. To avoid low liquidity, hidden fees or slow withdrawals, FORECK.INFO provides an updated list of the best crypto exchanges based on real security and trading standards, not marketing claims. Platforms are compared by:
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regulation and asset protection,
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trading liquidity,
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transparent fees,
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deposit and withdrawal speed,
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reputation and verified user reviews.
This curated list helps both long-term investors and active traders choose the best exchange for their strategy during periods of high volatility.